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US Treasury yields have surged to their highest levels since October 2023, driven by strong economic data and concerns over inflation, particularly in light of Trump's economic proposals. The 10-year Treasury yield approached the critical 5% mark, raising fears of a stock market sell-off as the correlation between equity and bond yields has turned negative. Analysts warn that a strong jobs report could exacerbate these pressures, potentially leading to a significant market reaction.
Asian markets mostly declined following a slump on Wall Street, despite positive U.S. economic data. The Nikkei 225 remained flat, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite fell 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively. Rising bond yields and concerns over potential tariffs under President-elect Trump are contributing to market volatility.
Asian markets mostly declined following a slump on Wall Street, despite positive U.S. economic data. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1%. Rising bond yields, driven by strong job market reports, pressured stock prices as investors shifted towards safer Treasury bonds. In energy trading, U.S. crude rose to $74.67 a barrel, and the euro traded at $1.0346. The upcoming U.S. job market update is anticipated to show a slowdown in hiring, raising concerns about inflation and interest rate cuts.
Stock investors may begin to disregard positive economic data, as Bank of America suggests a shift to a ‘good news is bad news’ mentality ahead of the December U.S. jobs report. Since August, the market has been characterized by a ‘rates up, stocks up’ trend amid growing economic growth concerns.
America's manufacturing sector is expected to rebound in 2025, which could significantly boost the stock market, particularly the S&P 500, according to Bank of America strategist Ohsung Kwon. The sector, having contracted for most of the past two years, is projected to see growth starting in April, driven by improving small business optimism and increased orders for 2025. With half of the S&P 500's earnings tied to manufacturing, this revival could enhance earnings growth and stock prices, despite expectations for more muted returns compared to 2024.
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